A Few Charts
Normally, I don’t really track the SP500 or indices and prefer to trade individual names but the highs and other data I talked about in this weeks report have me interested for my short-book and I talked about this in the Sunday report 41, “Everybody is a Genius in a Bull Market”. The move Friday really changed the price-action on the indices and then the gap up, break down Tuesday morning and then rally have shifted things a bit as well so I wanted to go over some quick price-action notes this morning for readers.
From Issue 41
I am going to just cover the $SPY ( ▼ 0.02% ), $HOOD ( ▲ 0.8% ) and WTI Crude/Energy which I also highlighted Sunday in a few key notes.
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This morning the market needs to fade the US open almost instantly. The longer that we wait above PHOD the bigger the chance this is a 4 hour AB=CD leg higher as you can see below. Again, I am open to either idea here but I am updating you all because these highs are a pain in the ass to trade and if I am having issues then I’d assume others are as well so these notes, I hope, help.
I am still short this name and the market is trying hard to keep it above $133 because below that this opens up in a hurry. I talked about this two weeks ago and that drop from $150s has been nice but they are making you work for it to get this thing to go. I still think today and end of week that this has potential lower but we need to stay below $141s to get this to work - remember that was a key spot for the short-trigger too.
WTI Crude
I talked about this in the report in a quick note and I have not taken the long in $USO ( ▲ 2.19% ) or Crude futures yet but I think we’re close here end of week. My concern outside of the chart is with Trump and Venezuela - I don’t think that is off the table and do think there is something coming there so whether that’s the catalyst or not we’ll see but the price-action is giving us clues. We are consolidating so far this week and just missed the 100% level so today and end of week if we fail back lower this is still an idea to watch.
For those without futures accounts $USO ( ▲ 2.19% ) ATM options are the best way in my view to play this so I am still watching for this.
