Episode 64: Stay The Course

The LongVol Report - Newsletter & Podcast

This is episode 63 of The LongVol Newsletter & Podcast.

We’ve been publishing the article of the week/podcast for nearly two years now each and every Thursday the free archive is here.

The podcast/video cast is published on Saturday morning covering part of this article, other stock market commentary and members Q&A.

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As if things could not get worse in the markets we now have Uncle Donald trying to fire Powell and displace the blame which is a pretty standard move from his playbook. In the history of dumb things this is right up there with the dumbest of them and it’s predicated on the idea that if he cuts rates things will improve.

Fascinating.

As of this morning there were notes that he “was exploring ways” to fire him which is just incredible to witness given everything else that is going on with this alleged policy.

Even if we got a rate cut, we get what, a short-term rally? But we still are going to deal with the fallout of tariffs and this lack of policy plan that inhibits the outlook for capital allocators and companies around the world.

I said the same thing to Business Insider this week in this article here.

• Hedge funds aggressively sold tech stocks in late March and early April 2025, at the fastest pace in six months and the highest level in five years, driven by fears of Trump’s April 2 tariff deadline and U.S. restrictions on chip exports to China - source.

• The information technology sector, including “Magnificent Seven” stocks (e.g., Nvidia, AMD, Tesla), was the most net sold, with U.S. tech stocks accounting for 75% of the selling. Total hedge fund exposure to tech is now at a five-year low. Source.

• Specific short bets were placed on Nvidia, AMD, and Tesla, as reported by Morgan Stanley on April 2, reflecting bearish sentiment on AI-related hardware and high-valuation tech firms. Source.

  And that’s my view with portfolio positioning right now across our portfolios and I am happy to take this stance until we get more clarity on all of this. In the meantime, we own our Core names and are waiting to add to a few as we continue through all of this.

The Topics This Week

• BROAD MARKET: A quick note on the market this week as well as some headlines worth getting into.

• Boeing Earnings: The China cancellation doesn’t matter, it’s nominal, the backlog is what matters and we’ll recap some expectations for earnings in the coming week.

• Recession Fears: A 9-minute video from Ken Fisher of Fisher Investments on his take on the tariffs and potential recession which is worth a watch.

• D.I.T.C. - Dive Into The Charts: S&P500 Daily Chart, Boeing Chart, LatAm, Egg Prices.

• LONG TERM IDEA REVIEW: Schwab earnings reviewed from this week.

• PREMIUM MEMBERS OPEN Q&A SESSION: Open Q&A for Members

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