Forget the AI Bubble, Trade The Flows.

I just got done reading some of the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey and there are some interesting data points there that caught my eye again with the AI capex spending and the overall concerns that we may be in a bubble. Concerns about the spending is still up and people are still concerned enough to subscribe to Michael Burry’s latest views on it on his substack.

The thing is this, nobody ever really knows when a bubble will pop and most never get the timing right anyway so it’s always had me beg the question, why do people even try to time it? Unless you’re someone with a large bank roll, time and patience, it seems like a fools errand, at least to me.

You see it with Carvana the last 3-4 years and I still get people texting me about it every time it makes a new high asking why or in disbelief and the fact that the video I made on it years ago saying it would go BK (before the PIK loan) has more views than any video I’ve made on YouTube.

The fact is this, you all love bear porn. You love to hear the world is going to end and if you didn’t then we wouldn’t have these same idiots year looking for the actual rapture or, worse, have guys like Roubini get paid what they do to tell you it’s all going to hell in a hand bag. By the way, he’s now as bullish as ever, if that means anything.

So my question that I have always asked is why do I actually care about market tops, bubbles or things going bankrupt? Where is the edge, the alpha in any of that? The answer is usually that there is none but it sure as hell makes for great reading/watching.

I’d rather trade the flows long/short than to sit here and shill the bear porn to all of you because, at the end of the day, I’d rather make money from idea flow than to be “Mr I told you so” because that doesn’t come with money, it comes with texts and “great calls”, neither of which pay mortgages or buy Gulfstreams! 😉

What I want to cover in this post for members is my views on this a little more in depth as it relates to the AI boom, tech names and my views on trading the flows v. calling the inevitable tops. I am going to talk more about this in the 2026 outlook webinar this week because I do think there is a 5%-10% pullback coming led by these names but let me jump into my views here on this for everyone.