Range Bound Markets

So far this week we’ve had some well-timed posts that have dropped the markets and as we head into the end of the week I can’t help but think that they’re not done. We’re also just kicking off earnings season and seeing Goldman Sachs beat and then sell-off is a bit concerning but then Taiwan Semiconductor smashes earnings so it’s a mixed bag so far.

I also began closing out Astronics this week which we owned from low $30s and then again in low $40s so I am happy to book those gains then look to maybe re-buy the rest of the position (we keep small size on in most) should I get the chance again.

The trade war with China is back on (not that it was really off) but the tone has picked up this week with Bessent’s comments this week and I don’t think this is the end of it but that doesn’t mean China is weak. I had a friend who runs one of the largest Macro advisory firms in the world tell me a year ago that they liked China and that NOT buying $BABA ( ▼ 0.49% ) then would be a mistake. Turns out he was right.

But that is not slowing down $TSM ( ▼ 1.6% ) which just crushed earnings again this morning. I was talking about this name the last few years and we flagged it this Summer in the report before the $200 breakout.

Again, for those of you still subscribing to macro reports maybe it’s time to switch it up and get a copy of LongVol Report - we don’t write you 30 pages of nonsense but what I can promise is we’ll give you actionable ideas to make money with.

PS - you can get the report with a monthly membership now.

In other earnings names this week Charles Schwab reported and they once again beat with incredible numbers. We owned this in portfolios this year and I honestly would like to own it still but it won’t get the multiple it needs given the bank side of the business.

The stock is up +24% YTD which is better than a stick in the eye but still, when we look at allocating capital I tend to get picky and we made a little but sold out of it last quarter. For conservative investors I think this name is a good place to park some money and ride the trend on the chart, and financials, higher.

Yesterday $HIMS ( ▼ 5.75% ) had a +16% move which we like since we own a position in portfolios in this name and what I like more is the IV spike on moves like that. We especially like this because this name has lagged the other retail momentum names and if we can get it going here to end this week we may see new highs.

This move into the $60-$63 area is key because we’ve now tested it four separate times the past few years and failed. I know the traditional technicians out there will look at this and think “double top” but this is where many technicians falter; their lack of context into the charts.

I am not a day-trader (but I will when there are A+ setups) but an investor so let me share a few things I used to combat not seeing the “Forest through the trees syndrome” when I look at ideas like this.

For those of you that are not using the Swing Alerts service this idea of DITM options is how we structure the ideas sent out. You want TIME when you like an idea/name you believe in and the worst enemy of any investor is a lack of patience (we all suffer from it) ) but finding a solution for that is the key.

Citadel Securities data confirms retail investors' call-to-put ratio has stayed positive for 24 straight weeks through October 2025, marking a record streak since 2020 and fueling market gains via dealer hedging.

This just confirms my views that I shared last week in the videocast and in Issue 41.

This market is propped up right now by retail being long gamma which is creating an artificial bid in most of these Mag 7 names which effectively then keep the index ETFs that hold them in a majority weighting up as well.

This chart from Carson and Ryan Detrick I thought was interesting and something to chew on. There is really nowhere for money to go to with rate cuts ahead of us and inflation taking off so it needs to go into risk assets.

But, you all saw what happened last Friday and then again this week with the Trump tweets put out: the markets reverse just as quick and I do think that we need to check back further than we did last Friday. And when that happens, my concern is the margin calls that come from it given that we’re at record levels of margin debt!

This does not mean I am bearish the markets at large, especially into 2026 but I think a flush-out is coming and warranted which only gives (us/me) better entries on names that we want to own in portfolios for 2026.

I am going to dive a little deeper into this idea of the check-backs and the SP500 views this week for subscribers this week because it will build on what I already talked about this week in Issue 41 of The PDF Report. This is an easy topic for me to shed light on because I spent my early part of the career on a futures trading desk and the sideways/rangebound markets (then) were a thing and that’s what we’re getting this week so it’s as good as time as any to talk about it.

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