The Trump 2.0 Stock Market

The LongVol Report - Weekly Article of The Week & Podcast

This is episode 59 of The LongVol Article of The Week & Podcast.

We’ve been publishing the article of the week/podcast for nearly two years now each and every Thursday the free archive is here. You can upgrade to view the rest of this post below and get access to the weekly newsletter.

The podcast/video cast is published on Saturday morning covering part of this article, other stock market commentary and members Q&A.

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More Pain Before it Gets Better

After the price action the past few weeks my views are that this gets worse before it gets better and I’ll get into this more in the article this week and on the videocast on Saturday.

Usually, you get a relief rally of sorts but we’ve just failed to do that and given the crowded trades this unwind likely gets worse before it gets better.

Mag 7 Earnings growth are a problem - the tariffs were just the gas on the fire that was already lit so this narrative that it’s the tariffs is just that, narrative. But the thing is this, it got bad in a hurry and I cut my trip to Dubai a few weeks short because of that and it was February 27th when you could see the turn of the price action: that morning was the day it began and it was more cutting long exposure and trying to get more short exposure.

From there it’s been a search for a relief rally, we usually get them because markets tend to be orderly but we’ve not got it.

Why is that? My views are what I shared last week in the article 58- that when every hedge fund manager who closet index their clients along with the financial advisors who stick everyone into the same mutual funds, ETFs and shiny object stocks (Mag 7) that you get a rush for the exits scenario.

In short, the technicals breakdown because nobody is watching them anymore — it becomes a race for the exits and I believe after this week this is where we are at.

The Positive - once we get out of this, the tariffs, the DOGE layoffs, the mass selling we’re going to have so many quality names (not the Mag 7) at incredible prices that the ensuing 3/4/5 quarters are going to be BIG. In fact, I thought some of this would be in Q1/Q2 but it’s going to be delayed for the time being.

Names like $DOW ( ▼ 0.21% ), $VFC ( ▲ 0.32% ), $SWK ( ▼ 0.01% ), $PYPL ( ▲ 0.83% ), $EL ( ▲ 0.07% ) select names in small caps and the $IWM ( ▲ 0.57% ), to name a few, are going to be at spots where you’ll have no choice but to own them and I’ll cover them as we get into the heart of all of this.

The Topics This Week

• BROAD MARKET: Stock market sell-off continues this week with S&P500 near correction territory with tariff talks again causing fears. Plus, new highs in $GLD ( ▼ 0.18% ) and potential coming in Small caps and $IWM ( ▲ 0.57% ) 

• Russell 2000: Bears in control but ahead of June rate cuts it’s time to build a shopping list of names….

• Intel Rallies +15% With New CEO: Intel has finally found a new CEO and the markets like the news, but is there more to come?

• Trading With Correlations: Hershey’s stock example & notes

• D.I.T.C. - Dive Into The Charts: $SPY ( ▲ 0.58% ), $XHB ( ▲ 0.25% ) , High Yield Credit Spreads, $CL_F ( 0.0% ), $HIMS ( ▲ 1.94% ) 

• LONG TERM IDEA REVIEW: $PYPL ( ▲ 0.83% ) - $500B share buyback

• PREMIUM MEMBERS OPEN Q&A SESSION: Open Q&A for Members

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