Episode 75: Notorious B.I.D.

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This week, the U.S. stock market showed strength, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.46% to close at 6256 points on July 3, 2025, near record highs. The Nasdaq also hit new peaks, driven by strong labor data and tech sector performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 350 points after a better-than-expected June jobs report, adding 147,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.1%. Market sentiment was supported by easing geopolitical tensions, a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, though tech and mega-cap stocks saw some softening early in the week. We’re likely still on for a September rate cut even with the suspect jobs data today.

Tariff Plays: Coming into this week we held our quarterly DeltaOne call which was about two-hours as we went over thematic ideas and core positions for Q3. One of the themes discussed were tariff deal ideas and those were covered in the report this week with $RH ( ▼ 2.78% ) and $CROX ( ▼ 1.98% ) at the top of the list.

This was also noted Monday morning in DeltaOne to subscribers pre-market.

Moving on….

$TSM ( ▲ 0.28% ) continues to perform and I’ve talked about that name here for at least a year and last May in this weekly article I talked about the price targets then. We made new highs this week on the name aided by regulation changes.

We’ve covered this name in the report so for those of you reading/new here wondering how it works have a read. This was not a “news-driven” or “magic call volume” name. There are real fundamental tailwinds driving it, and have been, it then just becomes a case of trading the trend until we believe the narrative and/or tailwinds change.

✅ Conclusion:

A lot of our long-term/core holds woke up to start Q3 and that’s expected as we get into the back half of the year. As for the SP500 and broad market we should check back a bit next week but that’s not a concern for us here. I’m well aware many market participants have an obsessions with market tops/bottoms calls but that’s not what we focus on here. The mid-cap/small cap regime is back in my view and during out quarterly call on Sunday we covered some key data points and many names on the research list have begun to inflect, and should continue, into the back half.

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