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LongVol Report 42
Video report.
I hope everyone is enjoying their weekend and is ready for another likely slow broad market week. We have the usual weekly suspects, including Redbook sales Tuesday, MBS apps Wednesday and Claims and PMIs Thursday, with new home sales as well. Friday has durable goods and UMICH sentiment.
My views are that we still trade higher on the Nasdaq and SPX500 but that the SPX500 will grind making it a pointless endeavor to trade or watch.
The Nasdaq (watch the video below) has more potential given the price targets and swing long is a position I took last week and am hopeful that produces this week.
Last week we made a lot of money and booked gains on a lot of Core positions so I am not in a rush to pile back into ideas in the market right now aside from the other Core ideas that are still in the books.
My view this week is two fold:
Nasdaq rallies and drags a few names with it
BABA long is back with the HK index addition
The rest this week is likely a waste of time, even Tesla earnings which are going to be crowded and a coin toss at most - again, not what we do in our framework so it doesn’t matter either way to me but just some thought.
Moving on…
I was at dinner in Phoenix with a reader last night and we were talking about what we do in the fund and I guess you can describe us at a private equity firm that also tactically trades event-driven/short-term situations.
We either buy companies/sectors that are inflecting with great earnings/revenue or we buy turn arounds ($PZZA $VFC) and hold. The rest is, short-term tactical trading like long the past few weeks with the index add.
Speaking of a great company with earnings/revenue….
- This hit all time highs Friday. We own this in the fund and I talked about this non-stop. To be clear, this is an example of a Core idea that has:
Fundamentals: $2B in cash, $170mm recent cash from mining sale, FCF growing, dividends, buybacks and great management.
Macro: You have a strong demand for metals right now given inflationary concerns.
Hard to argue that and all it took was a little research.
You can watch the CEO discuss the Company and metals here in this recent interview.
LongVol Report 42
If you’re not a subscriber to the AST Swing Portfolio make sure you look at the returns the last two quarters.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Subscribers, the report link is in the chat.
Dan
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