Market Update & New Blog

We’ve fully migrated over to this new site/blog and all of the articles/posts have been transferred so you’ll get all of the same emails etc but it might say “BeeHiiv” now instead.

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 Moving on….

Today we had $AAP (Advance Auto Parts) earnings and they were less than stellar on their FY25 guidance. The last earnings report concerned me a bit as well and given their plan going forward it had me switch from the equity to LEAPs and some other longer term positions but this drop today didn’t help. One, I think it’s overdone given the fact that solvency risk is off the table and two the guidance was not that bad - maybe this was more of short-sellers hitting the tape than anything and after this settles my plan is to trade around this and likely exit the long because this is going to take a bit longer than expected.

For those that have been here for a while I said this same thing last report hence switching to the LEAPs position v. tying up the cash in long equity. I’ll talk about this more in the AOTW/Webcast on Friday.

By the way, starting in a few weeks the Webcast/AOTW will be held on Thursday at 5pm EST for members so that it’s done live and then recorded and published as usual.

SPY/Broad Market - $NVDA earnings are out and people are still buying chips because they had a monster $43B in revenue. I’ll leave the other commentary to CNBC/blogs and focus on the price-action into tomorrow in the members are of this post.

The SP500 futures are the key here and after testing that $6020 area we sold off almost no-bid back to key support at $5950 before staging a rally with $NVDA earnings coming out. I talked about these levels in the report Sunday and in the Discord.

Right now this is bullish, short-term, and $6050-$6060 are my targets into tomorrow which helps some of the higher beta names from Momentum Monitor as well. I don’t care about forecasting further than that because I don’t trade the indices/momo stuff too much other than to generate some P&L (which is really been the MO all week given the ranges) - but for those that understand the correlation these are the spots to watch for a light rally.

I’ll cover some updates on why $TSLA is getting close to a key technical inflection as well as update on $MSFT and $META potential longs into Friday inside.

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