This market move today was something that has been in the works for the past few months and I would be lying to all of you if I said I was hoping we’d hold these highs/gap up today so I could trim down some core longs we own but I didn’t - we did put on some shorts though, just never enough.
Earlier this week I talked about this playing out below.
The price-action really never lies, you can look at it, look at it, then sometimes even then psych yourself out, but, it never lies.
So today was key for this market and I talked about it again pre-open and we did what I did not want to see and that was lose $667s and prior high of day.
We had a chance at turning the bearish weekly candle bullish, it failed, and the larger time frame took back control.
The thing is, nobody really ever listens in this business, or, if they do, they listen to hear what they want to hear to fit a pre-conceived notion which is why I try to avoid most outside noise, don’t listen to CNBC, read non-source data and generally avoid talking about the market aside from with a select few.
If I sound annoyed, it’s because I am.
Annoyed because positions we put into portfolios with positive FCF, margin improvement etc. have to be affected by the general degeneracy that these current markets provide.
That degeneracy manifests in margin debt at highs, retail pretending they’re all options traders now, growth companies that have no revenue like $OKLO ( ▼ 14.45% ) doubling in a month and then watching quality companies, with fundamentals get dragged down with it all.
So ya, it’s annoying.
Where do we go from here?
$645-$650 is support here and that should get bids but we should end up trading down into $630s or so then we’ll see what the Fed does in December.
Regardless, the monthly and weekly charts have been bearish and the day to save it was today, but we didn’t, so it’s risk off for the foreseeable future, sans some bounces here and there.
People will “Monday morning” quarterback this entire thing but the fact is that this has been in play for a few weeks we just failed the last chance to make it stick today.
The positives are this.
Core names get cheaper, and will continue to do so as margin calls come forth here in the coming weeks.
When $COIN ( ▼ 7.44% ) hits $200-$210 that completes a daily measured move which is usually a good sign that a rally ensues and if we get a rally on $COIN ( ▼ 7.44% ) then we should see the same in $BTC.X ( ▼ 2.84% ) and then the $SPX ( ▼ 1.56% )
And who knows, we may even get this flush out sooner than later but those are the areas on both $COIN ( ▼ 7.44% ) and $SPY ( ▼ 1.52% ) I am watching for the market signal to get long.
Dan
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