The LongVol Report Episode 59

Your Free Sneak Peek

Author

Dan Bustamante
March 18, 2025

The LongVol Report - The Article of The Week & Podcast

We’ve been publishing the article of the week for nearly two years now each and every Thursday. We’ve decided to start sending a free newsletter, mentioning the topics covered the week prior.

If you want the full (And latest) version of The Article of The Week, get a 30 day free trial and upgrade here.

But for now, enjoy some more extras we’re deciding to throw your way.

Don’t forget to subscribe on YouTube and Spotify to see our other content as well.

Let’s get into it:

 

Quick Commentary: Indices hit six month lows this week as we saw continued selling across asset classes on tariff concerns and slowing earnings growth in Mag 7. This week the PPI and CPI events - even with PPI showing 0% change in wholesale prices markets were still off the highs with Trump, once again, threatening tariffs. The Bank of Canada did cut Wednesday marking their 7th cut in a row and it’s likely the US is still on the same path of 1-2 rate cuts with a +58% for a June cut.

The SP500 futures are really testing technical limits this week but given the rally we’ve had, guidance lowered for Mag 7 names for 2025 and panic it makes sense.

  • Since 1950: The S&P 500 has had 36 double-digit corrections (declines of 10% or more) over this 72-year period. This averages to approximately one correction every 2 years.

  • This selling has been a “slow bleed” this week after some violent rallies last week that only faded in the afternoon - this makes it tougher for the directional put traders who are dependent on price + time.

Credit: Investopedia

SP500 Futures Daily

Topics Covered - Episode 49

Intel Rallies on New CEO
Intel announced Lip Bu Tan as its new CEO, sparking an 18% share price surge on the news. This leadership change is pivotal for Intel’s strategic foundry pivot, it’s transforming its foundry business into a standalone subsidiary, aiming to win back manufacturing leadership by 2025. Investors are excited, but here’s the kicker: we took profits after that big pop, anticipating a pullback before we jump back in.

Why It Matters:

  • A strong CEO can accelerate Intel’s push to compete with TSMC and Samsung.

  • Intel’s aggressive cost-cutting could free up resources for AI and other growth areas.

  • For those eyeing a position, we’re watching for a bit of a retracement first—this isn’t a buy-at-any-price scenario.

Russell 2000: Searching for Gems
While headlines focus on the “Mag 7” mega-cap tech slowdown, small caps are getting hammered, and that’s where opportunity often hides. We’re preparing a shopping list of names we believe will be deeply undervalued once the market dust settles.

Why It Matters:

  • Historically, small-cap corrections can present high-upside rebounds.

  • Rate cut chatter and macro uncertainty are pushing investors to risk-off, but eventually, that pendulum swings back.

  • We’re watching certain industrial, consumer, and financial small caps for the best bargains in the weeks ahead.

PayPal ($PYPL) and the $500B Buyback
PayPal shares fell ~25% post-earnings, but the underlying story isn’t broken. They just authorized a $500B share buyback, which is over 15% of the company’s market cap. That’s a bold sign of management confidence.

Why It Matters:

  • New CEO Alex Chriss is aiming for profitability over hyper-growth.

  • Despite cautious guidance, PayPal remains entrenched in global e-commerce.

  • Short-term worry can create long-term value—this sell-off may be the chance for a discounted entry.

More Topics We Covered This Week (Paid Members Get Full Details)

  • Broad Market Update: Why the S&P 500 is flirting with correction territory and what rising Gold prices might be signaling.

  • Tariffs & “Mag 7” Earnings: Tariff drama is dominating headlines, but the bigger story may be the mega-cap earnings slowdown.

  • Trading With Correlations: A look at Hershey’s stock (HSY) and its link to cocoa prices—plus why correlation analysis matters for your trading strategy.

  • Dive Into The Charts: Technical breakdowns on S&P 500 futures, WTI Crude Oil, Home Builders ($XHB), and high-yield credit spreads.

  • Premium Members Q&A: Our deep-dive answers to member-submitted questions on position sizing, LEAP strategies, and more.

Ready for the Full Picture?

If you found this helpful, you’ll love the full LongVol Report, packed with detailed charts, sector spotlights, and specific trade insights each and every week.

  • Access full in-depth analysis on all our topics (plus new ones every Thursday).

  • Get the Saturday videocast and Q&A, where we expand on trade setups and answer your questions.

  • Stay ahead of major market moves with real-time commentary, watchlists, and educational resources.

Ready to level up your investing?
Click Here to Upgrade and unlock the complete weekly report plus all our premium perks.

Thanks for reading this week’s free snippet of The LongVol Report. Hit that upgrade link above or reply to this email if you have any questions. We look forward to welcoming you on the inside!

Stay sharp,
The LongVol Team

Unlock Your Premium Membership

Get the first 30 days free and unlock the rest of this post as a Premium Member.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

Reply

or to participate.