Trader X | Market Recap (11/18)

The open today was pretty much as expected with that selling and given the high time frames it’s still bearish but there’s a chance that bulls can take control into end of the week but it’s predicated on $NVDA ( ▲ 1.26% ) earnings tomorrow after the bell and a key level on the market that I am going to share here for free tonight.

First, $NVDA ( ▲ 1.26% ) earnings are pricing in a ±7% move which is pretty significant so based on how good or (hopefully not for markets sake) bad they are this market will move. One thing that real options traders do well is price in moves and understand probabilities and if there’s one thing I’ve taken away from Dan over the year’s it’s the idea of trying to game-out what could happen so that I am prepared either way.

In fact, he talked about the $QQQ ( ▼ 0.19% ) on his Twitter today and said $600 was key and if you look it rejected it and that’s in line with my views headed into tomorrow.

$600 has to clear on the $QQQ ( ▼ 0.19% ) or we just end up dropping $20-$25 points lower which is a BIG BIG move and that happens if $NVDA ( ▲ 1.26% ) ends up reporting so bad that it causes a rippled effect in the markets which can certainly happen. If we can get above $600s then we still have our work cut out for us because we need to get above $607s which is going to be hard and if we get there the first test will fail more than likely just like $600s failed today after the morning rally.

The idea here is that this market is heavy on the charts and the only thing that saves it is this earnings tomorrow after the bell which means we’re in for a lot of moves into the end of the week and into monthly OPEX.

For those new here you should really read this then watch because this price action will follow exactly what I am saying to you here tonight and some will still make mistakes trying to get ahead of it not realizing that the downside here is big *IF this plays out.

That being said tonight I am going to cover how I am going to trade this volatility into the end of the week, a trade that I like (and already took) predicated on the idea that bitcoin rallies and I was already up +400% on the calls today on it so it’s worth a read.