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Weekly Recap

The month of September was phenomenal for trade ideas in this report and the broad market but those of you here that pay attention know that we don’t bet on the broad market or shiny-object stocks. I’ve said it before, the approach I run is Long/Short equity and that means I could care less about the $SPY ( ▲ 0.57% ) $META ( ▼ 0.69% ) $NVDA ( ▲ 0.28% ) or other nonsense aside from trading them.

Where we find outsized returns are in event-driven idea flow, turn-arounds and special situations.

  1. Anywhere Realty/Compass Merger: This week $HOUS ( ▲ 0.19% ) had a merger with $COMP ( 0.0% ) and we made over +80% so far on that equity position and that has zero do do with market tops, macro or any of the other noise that so many investors spend their time on. Some of the readers in this report who really do listen had that position in their portfolios and made a lot of money with it yet I can go to X and see people talking about “unusual call flows” on the name a few days before. If I had to spend my career searching each day for call flows instead of running a repeatable approach to analyzing companies and investments then I’d likely be a financial advisor at Wells Fargo selling you life insurance and telling you that you need to buy bonds - but I’m not.

  1. Valero Long - $VLO ( ▲ 0.69% ) This was an idea listed in the PDF report last week as a “Best Idea” and a few weeks back in the PDF report I began flagging other energy names. I don’t like investing into energy or believe it has to have a space in a portfolio but it has been left-for-dead this year and it was only a matter of a time. $VLO ( ▲ 0.69% ) is a fundamentally sound name with many reasons to own it so knowing that it became a situation of waiting on a technical trigger to get in last week which we did.

  1. Micro Strategy Short - $MSTR ( ▲ 2.78% )

    This was a large trade this week on the short-side. We don’t cover it in the report because it’s not something that is in our framework but it is a bonafide trading-sardine and it can be used as such. This week we traded nearly -15% lower in two days - and guess what? This stock does that a few times a month which means I don’t need call or put flows to tell me to watch it - I know that it moves so it becomes a game of watching it at key levels then watching for order flow to send it in whatever direction it goes.

PA portfolio

+50% Since April

There is a long-time follower and F.O.P.T member, Ron, who has been here since 2017 (before I took a few years off from posting online) and who returned in 2022 when I started posting again that is up over +50% this year on a $1.2 million portfolio.

For the haters and emo-kids out there, this is not his first year up making money, nor the only person like this in a decade of me writing it’s just that he’s decided to share (as have a few of you as well).

He was up over +25% last year as well but this year has been extraordinary given some of the idea flow we’ve put out and the fact that he structures trades correctly.

We’re going to be hosting a live webinar on this in the next few weeks to have him discuss what he’s learned from the F.O.P.T and to take questions.

Stay tuned for the date!

Best Ideas This Week

Inside are 4 best ideas this week that I am watching.

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