WYMTW Ep. 18

Summer & Painting The Tape.

June 01, 2024

Here is a recap of what you missed this week (WYMTW).

The video is below, you can subscribe to that, and I am opening up Q&A again for a weekly Q&A on these posts. Email in to submit - Q&A is at the end of this week.

I took a quick morning ride this morning after taking two weeks off to recover a bit and focus on that exam that I had. That’s a $70M property there that is being developed - I shared it in DeltaOne the other day. The market might be heading for a soft slowdown eventually but the high end is still on fire - in reality, it always is.

  • Carl Icahn takes a position in Caesars stock - shares rally (Yahoo Finance)

  • Tom Lee from FundStrat says investors should buy before jobs data this week (Business Insider)

  • Is SMCI putting in a corrective trend pattern to sell off? (The LongVol)

  • Buybacks reach $201 Billion a record for Q1 (S&P Global)

  • Carvana AST Alert - Closed down in May (Swing Trade Portfolio)

  • Sales Forces drops post-earnings then rallies +7% on Friday (LongVol Daily Brief)

Quote of The Week

CRM - The stock is down -10% after-hours. They had decent numbers and raised the EPS guidance but revenue missed by 0.1% and GAAP margin was guided lower. Whatever - the point is now that you have this lower there is a trade potentially long here into the end of the week around $215-$220 area. That is my technical spot to watch for a trigger to get long. Again, to be nuanced in this - I am not buying the stock to hold, there are better holds (Subscribe to the AST Alerts) . Most amateurs that punt around in global stock markets see this and buy it to hold with little to no diligence - let’s be real, that’s exactly how it goes down.

What I care about is very simple:

The Market at Large

Advanced Auto Parts - Earnings Report

  • Guidance up a bit (FCF)

  • Need to sell the Canadian arm of WorldPac business and that helps the overall valuation (CNBC article)

Papa Johns (PZZA) - Insights

  • This made it into the Report in issue 20 to be tracked

  • Stock is down -40% YTD (but I like out of favor on Core positions)

  • Turnaround story with the hunt for a new CEO after he was poached to head  

Chewy (CHWY) - Earnings

  • +28% post-earnings after years of losing money so with this earnings and $500 million share buyback I want to track it

  • Short interest was high so part of the +28% squeeze (need to see what comes of price action next few weeks)

  • Gross Margin & Net Margin was up

Energy

  • Q1 Energy Longs were the name but the last two months it’s been a consolidation

  • I expect to be back in some of the names here in June and into the start of Q3  

Q: Do you think selling covered calls on a position is a good strategy?:

A: Not my cup of tea - just not worth it for the upside. For wealth managers, it’s a way to make it work for investment managers/hedge funds (old school) not the way to do it .

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This article is presented for informational purposes only, is an opinion, and is not intended to recommend any investment, and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any current or future investments.

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