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Episode 79: Earnings Disclocations

Episode 79: Earnings Disclocations

Review of trades in $AFRM, $EXPE and $OKLO, PLUS: $PYPL and Trade Desk Earnings, The Return of M&A & Then My Q2 Letter to Investors & Clients

The LongVol
August 08, 2025

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There was no video-cast/article last week. This is #79 and we’re covering a recap of some of the earnings we’ve had the last few weeks, ideas from the report, a few notes on the September rate cut, housing and then a quick recap from my Q2 letter to my clients and partners.

Earnings season has been busy and usually, for me, these are the times to not only get updates on portfolio positions but to see what names make it to the tracking phase for potential new ideas.

I personally do not bet on earnings trades as a strategy-set but if we’re tracking a name we like because of the financials/fundamentals we certainly pay more attention to the earnings event to get more data.

This was this weeks report outlook, a bit short given I have been at the hospital for a week with some health issues with my Dad but the notes are below.

Issue 31 Notes

$AFRM ( ▼ 6.75% ) - breakout swing trade.

We’ve tracked this for a month or so in the report with some tailwinds/catalysts driving it. The notes the last few weeks in the price action & commentary section had readers looking for a breakout, which we got.

This was also an AST Alert from a few weeks ago which hit the target.

Technical breakout setup with other fundamental tailwinds. Many readers this week booked gains but also have been trading it into the breakout.

Nice breakout into Friday with a reversal at the open.

$OKLO ( ▼ 4.78% ) - Momentum long into soft targets at $83-85.

This has been a name we’ve covered for the last 3-months as a “trading sardine” because of how it moves. Many readers have made nice gains long and short this. This week the $85 target was noted with a potential reversal which we had as we head into earnings next week.

OKLO $85 targets hit and sell-off

$EXPE ( ▲ 2.19% ) - Another name in the Swing Monitor that broke out to new all-time highs this week with a double beat from earnings.

We noted some key catalysts driving the name a few months ago then updated the technical breakout potential which we got with earnings being the catalyst.